BetIQ Score Methodology
How we score every individual bet
The BetIQ Score measures the quality of a price vs. the market — not a prediction of game outcomes. Every score is computed for one bet on one side of one market at one line across all books we track.
Important
The BetIQ Score measures price quality vs. the market. It does not predict outcomes.
How the score is calculated
1
Collect every available price
For each individual bet (one side of one market at one line), we pull odds from every tracked US book. At least 3 books must quote the same side for a bet to be score-eligible.
2
Remove the vig
For each book offering both sides of a market, we compute implied probability on each side, then divide by the sum so the two sides add to 100%. We then average this "no-vig" probability across books — that is the market consensus win probability.
3
Compute payout edge vs. the field
Payout edge = this book's payout per $100 minus the average payout across all books quoting this side. Positive edge means you're getting a better-than-average price.
4
Apply the best-price penalty
Even above-average prices aren't always "good" — if there's a much better price elsewhere, the composite score is penalized proportional to the gap. We weight the penalty at 20%, so being modestly behind the best price doesn't tank the score, but being far behind does.
5
Normalize to IQ scale
We group bets into market pools (spread + moneyline, totals, props, futures) and z-score the composite within each pool. Mean = 100, standard deviation = 15 — same as an IQ test. Scores above 115 are meaningfully better than the market. Scores below 85 are meaningfully worse.
6
Check for "Pass State"
If every book's score for the same bet lands within 1 point of 100, there's no meaningful edge anywhere — we flag it as No Market Advantage and de-emphasize it. Don't waste your bankroll chasing nonexistent value.
Tier reference
Scores are bell-curved around 100 with SD 15 — so ~68% of bets fall in the 85–115 range and ~2.3% land 130+.
What is "Bad Bet Tax"?
- The expected cost per $100 wagered of taking this price instead of the best available price.
- Formula: (best_payout − this_payout) × vig_removed_win_probability.
- If the gap is small OR the probability is low, the tax is small — it's real money, but not much.
- If you see "Costs ~$8.50/$100", that means every $100 you wager here loses $8.50 in expected value compared to shopping at the best-priced book.
How arbitrage detection works
- An arbitrage exists when you can bet both sides of a market at prices that guarantee a profit regardless of outcome.
- We continuously scan for opportunities across the books we track. When the summed implied probability of the two best prices drops below 100%, the difference is your guaranteed margin.
- Arbs are rare, short-lived, and often require accounts at multiple books. Sportsbooks also limit players who arbitrage consistently — we surface them but warn you to size responsibly.
What is CLV?
- CLV (Closing Line Value) measures how your bet's price compared to the price when the market closed right before the event started.
- Beating the closing line consistently is the strongest predictor of long-term profitability in sports betting — more predictive than short-term W/L record.
- BetIQ snapshots closing lines for every tracked event so you can audit your own CLV over time.
Devigging, in plain English
Books build in a margin called the vig (or juice) by pricing both sides of a market at implied probabilities that sum to more than 100%. Devigging removes that margin so you can see the book\u2019s true opinion of win probability. We devig each book individually and then average across books to estimate the market consensus — that average is what we multiply by our payout edge to produce the score.
Disclaimer
BetIQ is an analytics tool. The score measures price quality, not outcome. No tool can predict the result of a sporting event with certainty. Must be 21+ and in a state where sports betting is legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.